Open source intelligence and geopolitical risk
I research how political risk travels through ownership, trade and infrastructure, and I write it up so the evidence and the judgement can be told apart. Published this year by the Council on Geostrategy and twice by Chatham House.
What this site is. A working portfolio rather than a description of one. The research, the code and the underlying data are published so the method can be checked instead of taken on trust.
I am looking for analyst roles in geopolitical and political risk, sanctions and financial crime, corporate intelligence and investigations, think tank research, or parliamentary and policy work. The discipline running through all of it is stating plainly what the evidence supports and where it stops: confidence graded claim by claim, and gaps in the record written down rather than filled with inference.
Selected work
MedGraph
A dependency cascade model of the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and South Caucasus, in which every edge is labelled as measured or analyst assigned, every judgement carries a recorded falsifier, and sensitivity analysis identifies which assumption a conclusion actually rests on.
Measuring three edges against IMF PortWatch and UN Comtrade did not confirm the earlier finding. It promoted the weakest assumption in the register to load-bearing. Silence the judgements altogether and a Suez disruption reaches one node, which the tool reports rather than hides.
Commercial Infrastructure, Strategic Dependence
Chinese state-linked ownership across eleven Mediterranean container terminals, assessed against NATO logistical exposure. Confidence graded separately for commercial influence, military utility and evidence of operational use, because the evidence behind each is qualitatively different.
When the Red Sea closed in 2024 and Piraeus throughput fell 7.8 per cent, the traffic reappeared at Valencia and Zeebrugge. It never left the COSCO network. Dependence sits at the level of the corporate perimeter, not the port.
A quarter of what Armenia sends Russia is now electronics
Armenian electronics exports to Russia rose from nine million dollars to eight hundred million. The dual-use share rose in all eight country and chapter pairs tested. Direct German supply cannot account for the volume, which turns the question from whether this is transshipment into where the goods actually come from.
Why Britain should lead on NATO's southern flank
Argued from the Ankara Summit Declaration itself that the alliance committed to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz while making no reference to the Eastern Mediterranean, where two member states contest each other's maritime boundaries.
What I do
Geopolitical risk
State behaviour, alliance politics and conflict risk, and how each reaches trade, energy and infrastructure. Published on NATO posture and on deterrence. Deepest on the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and South Caucasus, which is where the work has been tested rather than the limit of it.
Corporate and sanctions
Beneficial ownership and corporate network research across company registries, offshore records, the ICIJ Offshore Leaks Database and sanctions designations. Entity resolution on partial-match records. Sanctions displacement measured against primary trade data.
Data and method
Python and SQL to build datasets and models from primary sources, published with the code. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, claim-by-claim confidence grading, and intelligence gaps recorded rather than filled.