equirectangular, not area-true · edges are dependencies, not routes · overlapping nodes separated, mean shift 3.6px
Cascade
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A directed graph of who depends on whom across the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and South Caucasus. States, alliances, ports, gas fields and chokepoints, connected by dependencies rather than by geography.
Every connection carries a weight and a provenance. Some are measured from trade and shipping data with a cited source. The rest are analyst judgements, because alliance strength and political friction cannot be measured, and each is declared with a falsifier attached rather than buried inside a number.
Choose somewhere a disruption starts. The model pushes it outward along the dependency edges, weakening at each step, and reports who is reached, in what order, and by how much.
Then it does the part that matters. It takes each stated assumption, pushes it to its plausible bounds in both directions and re-runs. An assumption that changes nothing can be held loosely. One that reorders the table is where the analysis actually rests, and the tool tells you which is which.
MEASURED EVIDENCE ONLY to silence every judgement
and see what the evidence alone carries.| Node | Type | Order | Impact | Δ |
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