Published analysis, mostly on the Eastern Mediterranean and the parts of alliance policy that get written around rather than about.
The Ankara Summit Declaration committed the alliance to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and made no reference to the Eastern Mediterranean, where two member states contest each other's maritime boundaries. The argument runs from the text of the declaration itself, and sets out a three-pillar British contribution.
On the future of the rules-based international order. Argues that what is being replaced is not the order's substantive norms but its verification infrastructure, and that a deliberate architecture of distributed forensic capacity is needed in its place.
On nuclear proliferation and arms control.
Armenian electronics exports to Russia rose from nine million dollars to eight hundred million. The dual-use share rose in all eight country and chapter pairs tested. Direct German supply cannot account for the volume, which turns the question from whether this is transshipment into where the goods are actually coming from.
Three method-led OSINT case studies, on sanctions enforcement, maritime verification and aviation identification, are listed under research. Everything appears first on Substack.